Thoughts on the Potential Discontinuation of the iPod Touch
I read an article on The Unofficial Apple Weblog a few days ago that presented a really interesting argument: Apple could be planning on letting the iPhone 5 replace the iPod touch, discontinuing the latter. I won’t repeat the whole argument (you should go read it for yourself), but here are what I consider the big points supporting it:
- Apple didn’t release a new iPhone in June, like they have for the past 4 years. Instead, all rumors point to release in September, a month which is traditionally reserved for a refresh to the iPod lineup. I have a hard time believing that Apple would deviate from their year-long cycle without a good reason.
- Apple just started selling unlocked iPhones in the US. For the normal people among you, this means you can purchase an iPhone and have your choice of carriers, so long as that carrier uses GSM technology for their network. In the US, that means AT&T (and T-Mobile, but you’ll need to do a little more finagling for that). I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw an unlocked CDMA version (Verizon/Sprint) in the near future or, more likely, a dual-band iPhone that works on any network.
- Apple is ruthless when it comes to simplifying operations. Removing the iPod touch from the production line allows them to use the additional capacity for more iPhones, which has always been a need. This is also supports a dual-band iPhone. Three models (iPod touch, GSM/CDMA iPhones) reduced to one model. Now that sounds Apple-like.
- iOS 5, which was unveiled in June and due for release in the fall, contains no mention of new iPod touch hardware. Furthermore, the “iPod” app on the iPhone, which has previously been the way iPhone users access music and videos, has been broken into separate “Music” and “Video” apps, which is how it has always been on the iPod touch.
- The market share gains could be huge. A move to a cheap iPhone or an iPod touch that transforms into an iPhone with a few taps (which is probably how it would work) would let them garner much bigger market share, very quickly. With the added network effect of iMessage (think BBM for all Apple devices) when it debuts this fall, Apple is well-positioned to shake up market share numbers big time.
There are plenty of smaller points, most of which get mentioned in the original article, but I believe those are the most powerful motivations for Apple to make this change. Regarding counter-arguments, there’s really only one that concerns me:
- This goes against the business model Apple has used successfully for the past four years with the iPhone. The company has regularly disregarded market share numbers, preferring to focus on profit, and the results have been astounding. Reports show that Apple has 4.9% of the worldwide handset market - and 50% of the profits. AT&T and Verizon pay an exorbitant amount to Apple for each iPhone bought on contract, resulting in a profit margin that could be as high as 50-60%. I wouldn’t care about market share either with that profit margin. Why change that strategy? (Note: selling price and manufacturing cost factor in big here, but I can’t cover it any better than they did in the article, so go read it)
So Apple may not do this, but it’s fun to speculate. Let’s assume they do. What does it mean for you and me?
Most people have two sets of needs that until recently had to be served by two devices: one set being making calls, logging contacts, and texting, and the other being listening to music and other downloadable media. Recently, it’s gotten to the point where both of those needs can be served by your cell phone. If they aren’t, you probably fall into one of two camps. For those in Camp A, their cell phone doesn’t have the ability to play back media (i.e. a flip phone), or else the interface and experience for doing so is terrible (i.e. Blackberries). As a result, these people tend to carry around their cell phone all the time and their media device (iPod for 75% of them) only when they know they’ll need it. Camp B owns an iPod because everyone owns an iPod, even though they have a cell phone that’s perfectly capable of serving the same purposes (or maybe they have a legitimate reason, like they want access to the App Store). It would be interesting to see a statistic of how many iPhone users use it as their primary media device vs. how many Android users use their phone for music and video. I’ll bet the second number is far lower.
If the iPod Touch ceased to exist, and the price of a contract-free iPhone was dropped to $299/$399, you’d suddenly have a ton of freedom as a consumer. Have a smartphone but need an iPod? Buy an iPhone. It’ll cost you as much as an iPod, and when your contract is up on your cell phone, you can just activate your iPhone directly from the device. Have an iPod but ready for a new cell phone? Buy an iPhone and sell your iPod. You can be in Camp A, Camp B, or anything other camp - buy an iPhone, and it will meet your needs sooner or later.
An unlocked iPhone today costs $650. As an average consumer, you only pay a fraction of that because AT&T/Verizon subsidize the price for you, in return for you signing a two-year contract. Let’s assume they keep doing that after Apple drops the price (which they will). Don’t have a cell phone? How about an iPhone 5 for $50? How about an iPhone 5 for free? We’d be one small price war between carriers from that happening.
So if you’re in the market for either device (media player or cell phone), wait and see what Apple announces in September. It just be an iPhone 4 with a few changes, and a new iPod touch. Or you could end up with a device that offers an unprecedented level of power and flexibility.
What do you think? Would Apple do this? Would you buy one? Why or why not? Leave a comment below!